Allan Lichtman Presidential Prediction 2024 Polls. Historian allan lichtman reaffirmed his 2024 election prediction that vice president kamala harris will narrowly defeat former president donald trump, and called out fellow. While campaign events and speeches draw much attention, lichtman argues that the governing of the incumbent party is more predictive of election outcomes.

These days, he’s on a different kind of winning streak. In 2024, lichtman said at least eight of the keys favor harris.